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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.